Calibration Compounds

Good judgment isn't innate. It's calibrated.

The difference between someone with good judgment and someone without isn't intelligence. It's feedback loops.

Judgment compounds when you learn from what worked and what failed.

Most people make decisions, see outcomes, and move on. They don't close the loop.

You bet on a hire. Six months later, they're underperforming. You chalk it up to "bad luck" or "culture fit" and move on to the next hire.

You didn't extract the lesson.

What did you miss in the interview? What signal did you ignore? What pattern are you repeating?

Calibration requires deliberate reflection on prediction versus reality.

I thought this hire would ramp quickly because of their experience. They didn't. Why was I wrong? What false proxy was I using?

Judgment improves when you interrogate your misses.

The person with great judgment isn't smarter. They've just built tighter feedback loops.

They write down predictions before decisions. They review outcomes against predictions. They identify which mental models failed. They update their models based on evidence.

Over time, their judgment compounds.

Not because they're naturally better at seeing the future, but because they've systematically learned from the past.

Build your feedback loops.

Track predictions. Review outcomes. Update models.

That's how judgment moves from intuition to calibrated skill.