Foxes Update Beliefs

Today's 7-day weather forecast is as accurate as the 3-day forecast was in the 1980s.

This is one of the great unsung success stories in science. Hurricane track predictions improved from 200-400 nautical mile error to 50 nautical miles. Forecasts improve about one day per decade.

How?

Not better data. Not better technology. Calibration.

Weather forecasters track every prediction against reality. They know exactly how wrong they were, and by how much. They update. They adjust. They get less wrong over time.

Marketing teams don't do this.

"This campaign will generate 10,000 leads."
"Video is the future of content."
"Our attribution model proves social drives conversions."

Single-point predictions. Defended positions. Confidence performed, not calibrated.

Philip Tetlock's research found that forecasters who update beliefs beat those with access to classified intelligence data by 30%. He called them "foxes" versus "hedgehogs." Foxes know many things and update. Hedgehogs know one big thing and defend it.

Most marketing thought leadership is hedgehog content. Five trends for 2026. Why X is the future. Best practices that definitely work.

Confidence without calibration.

What if we tracked our marketing predictions the way forecasters track theirs? What if we admitted uncertainty instead of performing certainty?

The fox question isn't "what do I believe?"

It's "what would change my mind?"