Loops Amplify Direction

2008. MySpace was the world's largest social network. 115 million users.

Then Facebook overtook them in April.

What happened next wasn't gradual decline.

It was a death spiral.

We say growth and decline are opposites. Actually, they're the same mechanism running in reverse.

MySpace lost 40 million users per month for the next three years.

Not because Facebook was better.

Because MySpace's reinforcing loop flipped direction.

The growth phase: More users → more value → more new users → more network effects. The loop accelerated growth exponentially.

The decline phase: Same loop, opposite direction.

Technical debt piled up. Engineers couldn't ship new features. The site got slower, buggier. Users started leaving.

Fewer users meant less network value. Less value meant more users left. Faster.

One former engineer: "We couldn't change anything because we were afraid the whole pile would collapse."

They were paralyzed. Couldn't innovate. Couldn't respond to Facebook.

The mechanism: Feedback loops don't just maintain direction. They amplify it.

Reinforcing loops accelerate whatever's happening. Growth becomes exponential. Decline becomes spiral.

Your product-market fit? That's a reinforcing loop. Happy customers refer others. More customers generate more data. Better data improves the product. Better product creates happier customers.

The loop compounds.

But flip one element and the whole thing reverses.

Ship slower → customers get frustrated → fewer referrals → less data → product stagnates → more customers leave.

MySpace went from 115 million users to irrelevance in three years.

Not because they made one wrong decision.

Because one wrong decision triggered a reinforcing loop that amplified the decline exponentially.

Your startup's growth curve isn't linear effort producing linear results.

It's a reinforcing loop waiting to flip direction.

Which loops are you feeding? The ones that compound your advantages, or the ones that amplify your problems?