The Survivor Lens

During WWII, bombers returned riddled with bullet holes… wings, fuselage, tail. Military brass wanted to reinforce those spots.

Then, statistician Abraham Wald noticed something.

(I think about this way too often.)

"You're looking at the wrong data," he said. "These planes survived. The ones that didn't return? They got hit in the engines and cockpit—the places with NO holes on these survivors."

They were studying the wrong planes.

I used to think conversion optimization was straightforward. Study successful checkouts, find patterns, and replicate.

Done.

But here's the thing...

We're studying the survivors.

Your analytics show people who tolerated your terrible mobile experience, who didn't mind creating another account, and who had no other option at 2 AM.

The desperate, the patient, the trapped.

Meanwhile, 97% of visitors just… left.

No data. No exit survey. No idea why.

They saw your homepage for three seconds and left. They found your shipping costs and ghosted. They got confused by your navigation and went to Amazon.

You know what's wild?

Every optimization improves your site for people who already tolerate it. Your conversion rate inches up—2.1%, 2.3%, 2.5%—while your addressable market shrinks.

We're reinforcing the wings while the engines fail.

And then we wonder why only the same desperate customers keep showing up.