I Prefer Blondes

How do you know you chose what you chose?

Petter Johansson showed subjects two photographs and asked which face they found more attractive. They pointed. Then, using sleight of hand, he handed them the photograph they had rejected.

Most didn't notice.

They immediately invented detailed reasons for a choice they never made. One man pointed to a dark-haired woman, received the blonde, and said confidently: "I prefer blondes."

He explained a preference he doesn't have for a choice he didn't make.

We think explanations follow choices.

That's backwards.

In Johansson's lab, the explanation arrived instantly for a choice that never happened. The story was just as fluent, just as confident, just as detailed as if the choice had been real.

84% of subjects said they would definitely notice if such a switch occurred.

They didn't.

The explanation wasn't evidence of the choice. It was evidence that something will always generate an explanation, whether the choice was real or not.

Confidence doesn't prove accuracy.

Next time someone explains a strategic decision with total conviction, remember the man who chose a brunette and explained why he prefers blondes.

The explanation was perfect.

The explanation was fiction.

Go deeper: The Shadow Strategy