01
Dec
The Missing Middle
AI didn't just eliminate jobs. It created work that couldn't exist before. The question is whether
4 min read
Latest
01
Dec
The Jagged Frontier
AI passes the bar exam but can't count syllables. You can't predict from first principles where
4 min read
01
Dec
The Button Problem
If generating something takes no effort, what signals that it has value?
The Musician's Nightmare
In 2023, a
4 min read
01
Dec
The Apprenticeship Paradox
Need experience to supervise AI. But AI eliminates the roles where experience is gained.
The Junior Doctor's Dilemma
4 min read
01
Dec
Calibration Compounds
Good judgment isn't innate. It's calibrated.
The difference between someone with good judgment and someone without
1 min read
28
Nov
Foxes Update Beliefs
Today's 7-day weather forecast is as accurate as the 3-day forecast was in the 1980s.
This is one
1 min read
28
Nov
Cheap Capability, Expensive Judgment
When everything becomes cheap, something becomes expensive.
This is how scarcity migrates.
When manufacturing became cheap, design became expensive. When
1 min read
27
Nov
Conviction Moments
You have a brilliant strategy.
The analysis is solid. The logic is airtight. The deck is polished.
Then you present
1 min read
26
Nov
Demos Versus Production
The demo looks perfect.
AI analyzes the customer data, surfaces insights, generates recommendations. The CEO nods. The team gets excited.
1 min read
25
Nov
Can Versus Should
"AI can do this."
You hear it constantly. AI can write your emails. AI can generate your code.
1 min read