01
Dec
Calibration Compounds
Good judgment isn't innate. It's calibrated.
The difference between someone with good judgment and someone without
1 min read
Latest
28
Nov
Foxes Update Beliefs
Today's 7-day weather forecast is as accurate as the 3-day forecast was in the 1980s.
This is one
1 min read
28
Nov
Cheap Capability, Expensive Judgment
When everything becomes cheap, something becomes expensive.
This is how scarcity migrates.
When manufacturing became cheap, design became expensive. When
1 min read
27
Nov
Conviction Moments
You have a brilliant strategy.
The analysis is solid. The logic is airtight. The deck is polished.
Then you present
1 min read
26
Nov
Demos Versus Production
The demo looks perfect.
AI analyzes the customer data, surfaces insights, generates recommendations. The CEO nods. The team gets excited.
1 min read
25
Nov
Can Versus Should
"AI can do this."
You hear it constantly. AI can write your emails. AI can generate your code.
1 min read
24
Nov
What Stayed Expensive
AI made analysis cheap.
You can generate competitive research in minutes. Market analysis before lunch. Customer segmentation by afternoon. Strategic
1 min read
21
Nov
Find Real Bottlenecks
Everyone's solving surface problems.
"We need faster code reviews." "We need better standups." "
1 min read
20
Nov
Pattern Without Overgeneralization
You see a pattern three times and declare a law.
"Remote teams always move slower."
"Adding people
1 min read
19
Nov
Deprioritization Discipline
Everyone talks about focus.
Pick your priorities. Say no. Protect your time.
Then they list seventeen priorities.
The problem isn&
1 min read